1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli preview
In the match between 1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli, the 1X2 probabilities show 1. FC Magdeburg at 59%, draw at 23%, and St. Pauli at 18%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a 10% chance. The model also indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 57%.
1. FC Magdeburg has an expected goals figure of 2.03, while St. Pauli's is 1.04. Recent form shows 1. FC Magdeburg with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while St. Pauli has two wins and three draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise based on the teams' performances.
1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli: model vs market
| Source | 1. FC Magdeburg | Draw | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.04.
- The market prices 1. FC Magdeburg below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on 1. FC Magdeburg, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.33 | 2.33 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.60 | -0.01 |
| St. Pauli | 2.74 | 2.75 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (1. FC Magdeburg / St. Pauli)
- 1.29 / 0.77
- Defence rating (1. FC Magdeburg / St. Pauli)
- 1.06 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: 1. FC Magdeburg goals. Columns: St. Pauli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for 1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| St. Pauli | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (1. FC Magdeburg or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or St. Pauli) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Magdeburg win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
1. FC Magdeburg and St. Pauli recent form
1. FC Magdeburg
2W 2D 2L
St. Pauli
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
1. FC Magdeburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
St. Pauli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg at home only, St. Pauli away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-11-06
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-11-07
- VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2026-11-07
- Hertha BSC v Wolfsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- Bochum vs Karlsruher SC 2026-11-08
- FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- 1. FC Magdeburg, previous: Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg: odds and pick
- St. Pauli, previous: St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction