Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg preview
In the upcoming match between Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg, the 1X2 probabilities show Hertha BSC at 47%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 65%.
Hertha BSC has been in good form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Wolfsburg has a mixed record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6. The expected goals suggest Hertha BSC could dominate with 2.22 compared to Wolfsburg's 1.26. However, if Wolfsburg improves their scoring efficiency, the match could unfold differently.
Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg: model vs market
| Source | Hertha BSC | Draw | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hertha BSC below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hertha BSC, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha BSC | 2.15 | 2.10 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.85 | -0.07 |
| Wolfsburg | 2.87 | 2.98 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Hertha BSC / Wolfsburg)
- 1.26 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Hertha BSC / Wolfsburg)
- 0.67 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hertha BSC goals. Columns: Wolfsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Wolfsburg | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hertha BSC or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolfsburg) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win by 2+ | 37% | 2.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hertha BSC and Wolfsburg recent form
Hertha BSC
5W 1D 0L
Wolfsburg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hertha BSC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolfsburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hertha BSC at home only, Wolfsburg away only.
Hertha BSC vs Wolfsburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hertha BSC 3 · draws 2 · Wolfsburg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-08 | Wolfsburg | 0-2 | Hertha BSC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-05-27 | Wolfsburg | 1-2 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-24 | Hertha BSC | 0-5 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-15 | Wolfsburg | 0-0 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-21 | Hertha BSC | 1-2 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2021-02-27 | Wolfsburg | 2-0 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2020-11-01 | Hertha BSC | 1-1 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2020-01-25 | Wolfsburg | 1-2 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2019-08-25 | Hertha BSC | 0-3 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2019-02-02 | Hertha BSC | 0-1 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- Hertha BSC, previous: 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC analysis
- Wolfsburg, previous: Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück prediction