Updated

2. Bundesliga · Matchday 10

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

· Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

Alin prediction Hertha BSC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
1. FC KaiserslauternDrawHertha BSC
  • WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hertha BSC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
1. FC Kaiserslautern2.86 Draw3.70 Hertha BSC2.37

Price as of

Expected return at 2.37: -14.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 7 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC preview

In the match between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC, the 1X2 probabilities show 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 35%, a draw at 29%, and Hertha BSC at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 12%.

1. FC Kaiserslautern has an expected goals figure of 0.99, while Hertha BSC stands at 0.73. Recent form favors Hertha BSC, who have won their last 6 matches, compared to 1. FC Kaiserslautern's mixed results. The model indicates a 25% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, meaning a low-scoring game could be possible.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source1. FC KaiserslauternDrawHertha BSC
Model39%36%25%
Market34%26%40%
Published35%29%36%
Edge+1%+2%-4%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hertha BSC, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.35Now 2.35 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
1. FC Kaiserslautern2.752.75+0.00
Draw3.543.54+0.00
Hertha BSC2.352.35+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.991. FC Kaiserslautern
0.73Hertha BSC
Total expected goals
1.72
Attack rating (1. FC Kaiserslautern / Hertha BSC)
0.75 / 1.13
Defence rating (1. FC Kaiserslautern / Hertha BSC)
0.51 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.2% 11.8% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 1 16.4% 14.2% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 2 8.8% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 3 2.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: 1. FC Kaiserslautern goals. Columns: Hertha BSC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%
Over 1.5 53%
Over 2.5 25%
Over 3.5 10%
Both teams to score
34%
No goals (0–0)
19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X21. FC Kaiserslautern35%2.84
Draw29%3.48
Hertha BSC36%2.78
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525%4.03
Under 2.575%1.33
Both teams to scoreYes34%2.95
No66%1.51
Double chance1X (1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Hertha BSC)65%1.54
Handicap -1Hertha BSC win by 2+8%12.96
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC recent form

1. FC Kaiserslautern 4W 1D 1L
Hertha BSC 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
4 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hertha BSC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home only, Hertha BSC away only.

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 · draws 0 · Hertha BSC 2.

1. FC KaiserslauternDrawsHertha BSC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Hertha BSC0-11. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
2025-12-02Hertha BSC6-11. FC KaiserslauternDFB Pokal
2025-11-081. FC Kaiserslautern0-1Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Hertha BSC to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Hertha BSC
Our pick: Hertha BSC to win 18+ Bet Now