Updated

2. Bundesliga · Matchday 11

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt

· Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg· Referee Eric-Dominic Weisbach

Alin prediction 1. FC Nürnberg to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
1. FC NürnbergDrawDarmstadt
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.14.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
1. FC Nürnberg1.75 Draw4.41 Darmstadt4.20

Price as of

Expected return at 1.75: +0.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt preview

In the 2. Bundesliga match between 1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt, the model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 60% chance to win, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. There is a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 62%.

However, 1. FC Nürnberg's recent form shows 2 losses and only 1 win in the last 5 matches, while Darmstadt has 2 wins in their last 5. Additionally, Darmstadt has won both of the last two encounters against 1. FC Nürnberg. These factors could influence the outcome and challenge the model's predictions.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source1. FC NürnbergDrawDarmstadt
Model64%20%16%
Market55%22%23%
Published57%22%21%
Edge+2%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.14.
  • The market prices 1. FC Nürnberg below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt odds movement

Median bookmaker price on 1. FC Nürnberg, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.75Now 1.69 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
1. FC Nürnberg1.751.69-0.06
Draw4.204.18-0.02
Darmstadt4.204.12-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.351. FC Nürnberg
1.14Darmstadt
Total expected goals
3.50
Attack rating (1. FC Nürnberg / Darmstadt)
1.35 / 0.78
Defence rating (1. FC Nürnberg / Darmstadt)
1.13 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1 6.3% 9.0% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 2 8.4% 9.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.6% 7.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 6.8% 7.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6%

Rows: 1. FC Nürnberg goals. Columns: Darmstadt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X21. FC Nürnberg57%1.75
Draw22%4.58
Darmstadt21%4.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.11
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.60
No38%2.66
Double chance1X (1. FC Nürnberg or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Darmstadt)43%2.33
Handicap -11. FC Nürnberg win by 2+42%2.37
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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1. FC Nürnberg and Darmstadt recent form

1. FC Nürnberg 2W 2D 2L
Darmstadt 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

1. FC Nürnberg at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Darmstadt away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg at home only, Darmstadt away only.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Darmstadt head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 3 · draws 1 · Darmstadt 6.

1. FC NürnbergDrawsDarmstadt
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-23Darmstadt2-01. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
2025-08-081. FC Nürnberg0-1Darmstadt2. Bundesliga
2025-01-311. FC Nürnberg1-0Darmstadt2. Bundesliga
2024-08-25Darmstadt1-11. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
2023-03-311. FC Nürnberg0-1Darmstadt2. Bundesliga
2022-09-17Darmstadt2-01. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
2022-04-091. FC Nürnberg3-1Darmstadt2. Bundesliga
2021-10-29Darmstadt2-01. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
2021-02-06Darmstadt1-21. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
2020-10-051. FC Nürnberg2-3Darmstadt2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot 1. FC Nürnberg to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg
Our pick: 1. FC Nürnberg to win 18+ Bet Now