BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture, BKMA faces Ararat-Armenia with a 1X2 probability of 24% for BKMA, 26% for a draw, and 49% for Ararat-Armenia. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 10% chance. The model suggests a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
BKMA has an expected goals figure of 1.14, while Ararat-Armenia stands at 1.70. Recent form shows BKMA with 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Ararat-Armenia has 3 wins and 3 losses. The head-to-head record indicates BKMA has not won against Ararat-Armenia in their last 3 encounters, with 2 losses and 1 draw.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia: model vs market
| Source | BKMA | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
BKMA and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (BKMA / Ararat-Armenia)
- 0.81 / 1.13
- Defence rating (BKMA / Ararat-Armenia)
- 1.26 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: BKMA goals. Columns: Ararat-Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BKMA | 24% | 4.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (BKMA or draw) | 51% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Ararat-Armenia) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
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BKMA and Ararat-Armenia recent form
BKMA
2W 1D 3L
Ararat-Armenia
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
BKMA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Ararat-Armenia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: BKMA at home only, Ararat-Armenia away only.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: BKMA 0 · draws 1 · Ararat-Armenia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | BKMA | 2-3 | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Ararat-Armenia | 2-1 | BKMA | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-29 | BKMA | 2-2 | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Gandzasar v Sardarapat — match page 2026-10-16
- FC Urartu vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Ararat vs Shirak 2026-10-17
- FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- BKMA, previous: Pyunik Yerevan v BKMA analysis
- Ararat-Armenia, previous: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- Ararat-Armenia, next: Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22