Gandzasar vs Sardarapat preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Gandzasar and Sardarapat, the 1X2 probabilities show Gandzasar at 14%, a draw at 20%, and Sardarapat leading with 67%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% probability. Sardarapat's expected goals stand at 2.36, while Gandzasar's is only 1.00.
The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 58%. However, Gandzasar's recent form is concerning, as they have lost their last 6 matches. If they fail to improve their performance, it could impact the expected outcomes.
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat: model vs market
| Source | Gandzasar | Draw | Sardarapat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 20% | 67% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 14% | 20% | 67% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gandzasar and Sardarapat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Gandzasar / Sardarapat)
- 0.70 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Gandzasar / Sardarapat)
- 1.59 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gandzasar goals. Columns: Sardarapat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gandzasar vs Sardarapat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gandzasar | 14% | 7.34 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Sardarapat | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gandzasar or draw) | 33% | 3.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Sardarapat) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sardarapat win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Gandzasar and Sardarapat recent form
Gandzasar
0W 0D 6L
Sardarapat
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gandzasar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sardarapat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gandzasar at home only, Sardarapat away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Alashkert vs Syunik 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Gandzasar, previous: Van – Gandzasar, 2026-10-10
- Sardarapat, previous: Sardarapat vs FC Noah: odds and pick