Alashkert vs Syunik preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Alashkert and Syunik, the 1X2 probabilities show Alashkert at 81% and Syunik at just 5%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, which aligns with Alashkert's expected goals of 2.59 compared to Syunik's 0.51.
While the model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 60%, the possibility of both teams to score is lower at 38%. This indicates that if Syunik can improve their form, which has seen them lose their last 6 matches, they may challenge Alashkert's dominance.
Alashkert vs Syunik: model vs market
| Source | Alashkert | Draw | Syunik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alashkert and Syunik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Alashkert / Syunik)
- 1.34 / 0.54
- Defence rating (Alashkert / Syunik)
- 0.80 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alashkert vs Syunik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alashkert goals. Columns: Syunik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alashkert vs Syunik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alashkert vs Syunik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alashkert | 81% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.17 | |
| Syunik | 5% | 21.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alashkert or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Syunik) | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alashkert win by 2+ | 61% | 1.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Alashkert and Syunik recent form
Alashkert
2W 3D 1L
Syunik
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alashkert at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Syunik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alashkert at home only, Syunik away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Gandzasar v Sardarapat — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Alashkert, previous: Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert prediction
- Syunik, previous: Syunik v Shirak analysis