Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ararat-Armenia	Draw	Alashkert
Model	35%	27%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	27%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42Ararat-Armenia

1.49Alashkert

Total expected goals: 2.91
Attack rating (Ararat-Armenia / Alashkert): 1.20 / 1.34
Defence rating (Ararat-Armenia / Alashkert): 0.94 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 7.0% 6.1% 3.0% 1.6% 1 6.6% 12.7% 8.6% 4.3% 2.2% 2 5.5% 8.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.6% 3 2.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Ararat-Armenia goals. Columns: Alashkert goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ararat-Armenia	35%	2.87
	Draw	27%	3.70
	Alashkert	38%	2.62
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.80
	Under 2.5	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.50
Double chance	1X (Ararat-Armenia or draw)	62%	1.62
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Alashkert)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	Alashkert win by 2+	19%	5.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Ararat-Armenia and Alashkert recent form

Ararat-Armenia 4W 0D 2L

Alashkert 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ararat-Armenia at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-0
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alashkert away

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat-Armenia at home only, Alashkert away only.

Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Ararat-Armenia 1 · draws 1 · Alashkert 1.

33% 33% 34%

Ararat-ArmeniaDrawsAlashkert

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-06	Ararat-Armenia	1-1	Alashkert	Armenia Premier League
2026-03-07	Alashkert	1-0	Ararat-Armenia	Armenia Premier League
2025-09-25	Ararat-Armenia	2-1	Alashkert	Armenia Premier League

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Prediction snapshot Alashkert to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Alashkert