FC Urartu vs Ararat Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

FC Urartu vs Ararat: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Urartu	Draw	Ararat
Model	55%	26%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	55%	26%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.91.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC Urartu and Ararat expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70FC Urartu

0.91Ararat

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (FC Urartu / Ararat): 0.95 / 0.74
Defence rating (FC Urartu / Ararat): 1.03 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Urartu vs Ararat score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 5.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1 11.3% 12.5% 5.2% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 6.0% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 3.8% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: FC Urartu goals. Columns: Ararat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Urartu vs Ararat goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Urartu vs Ararat

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Urartu	55%	1.82
	Draw	26%	3.81
	Ararat	19%	5.29
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.06
	Under 2.5	51%	1.94
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.00
	No	50%	2.00
Double chance	1X (FC Urartu or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Ararat)	45%	2.22
Handicap -1	FC Urartu win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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FC Urartu and Ararat recent form

FC Urartu 3W 1D 2L

Ararat 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Urartu at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-2-1
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ararat away

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Urartu at home only, Ararat away only.

FC Urartu vs Ararat head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: FC Urartu 3 · draws 0 · Ararat 0.

100% 0% 0%

FC UrartuDrawsArarat

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-10	Ararat	0-1	FC Urartu	Armenia Premier League
2025-11-03	Ararat	0-1	FC Urartu	Armenia Premier League
2025-09-19	FC Urartu	6-0	Ararat	Armenia Premier League

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Prediction snapshot FC Urartu to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on FC Urartu