Van vs Gandzasar preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Van and Gandzasar, the model gives Van a 37% chance to win, while Gandzasar has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 9%. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a moderate chance for goals from both sides.
Gandzasar is struggling, with six consecutive losses in recent form, while Van has also had a tough time, recording just one win in their last six matches. The expected goals suggest a close match, with Van at 1.30 and Gandzasar at 1.21. However, if Gandzasar improves their performance, it could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Van vs Gandzasar: model vs market
| Source | Van | Draw | Gandzasar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Van and Gandzasar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Van / Gandzasar)
- 0.55 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Van / Gandzasar)
- 1.47 / 1.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Van vs Gandzasar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Van goals. Columns: Gandzasar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Van vs Gandzasar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Van vs Gandzasar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Van | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Gandzasar | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Van or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Gandzasar) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Van win by 2+ | 17% | 5.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Van and Gandzasar recent form
Van
1W 1D 4L
Gandzasar
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Van at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gandzasar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Van at home only, Gandzasar away only.
Van vs Gandzasar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Van 2 · draws 0 · Gandzasar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Gandzasar | 0-1 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Van | 2-1 | Gandzasar | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-12 | Gandzasar | 1-0 | Van | Armenia Premier League |
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