Sardarapat vs FC Noah: model vs market
| Source | Sardarapat | Draw | FC Noah |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sardarapat and FC Noah expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Sardarapat / FC Noah)
- 1.25 / 1.67
- Defence rating (Sardarapat / FC Noah)
- 0.97 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sardarapat vs FC Noah score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sardarapat goals. Columns: FC Noah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sardarapat vs FC Noah goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sardarapat vs FC Noah
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sardarapat | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| FC Noah | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sardarapat or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Noah) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win by 2+ | 30% | 3.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sardarapat and FC Noah recent form
Sardarapat
2W 3D 1L
FC Noah
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sardarapat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Noah away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sardarapat at home only, FC Noah away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Van vs Gandzasar 2026-10-10
- Ararat-Armenia vs Alashkert — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- FC Urartu v Ararat — match page 2026-10-11
- Syunik v Shirak — match page 2026-10-12
- Pyunik Yerevan vs BKMA 2026-10-12