Ararat vs Shirak preview
In the Armenia Premier League fixture between Ararat and Shirak, the 1X2 probabilities show Ararat at 41%, with both teams having a 29% chance of a draw or Shirak winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Ararat, which has a 10% probability.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form suggests some inconsistency, with Ararat's last five matches resulting in 2 draws and 3 losses, while Shirak has 3 losses and 2 wins. This unpredictability could lead to a different outcome than expected.
Ararat vs Shirak: model vs market
| Source | Ararat | Draw | Shirak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ararat and Shirak expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Ararat / Shirak)
- 0.83 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Ararat / Shirak)
- 1.22 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ararat vs Shirak score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ararat goals. Columns: Shirak goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ararat vs Shirak goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ararat vs Shirak
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Shirak | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ararat or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Shirak) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ararat and Shirak recent form
Ararat
2W 1D 3L
Shirak
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ararat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shirak away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ararat at home only, Shirak away only.
Ararat vs Shirak head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ararat 1 · draws 1 · Shirak 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Shirak | 0-2 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Ararat | 0-0 | Shirak | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-12 | Shirak | 4-2 | Ararat | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Alashkert vs Syunik 2026-10-16
- Gandzasar v Sardarapat — match page 2026-10-16
- FC Urartu vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Ararat, previous: FC Urartu vs Ararat: odds and pick
- Shirak, previous: Syunik v Shirak analysis