FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan preview
FC Noah faces Pyunik Yerevan with a 57% chance of winning, while the expected scoreline is 2-1, which is the most likely outcome at 10%. The model suggests a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 61%. FC Noah has shown excellent form, winning their last 6 matches, while Pyunik Yerevan has a mixed record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Pyunik Yerevan can improve their attack, scoring more than the expected 1.16 goals, they could challenge FC Noah's strong home performance. The head-to-head record also shows FC Noah's advantage, with 1 win and 2 draws against Pyunik Yerevan in their last 3 encounters.
FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan: model vs market
| Source | FC Noah | Draw | Pyunik Yerevan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Noah and Pyunik Yerevan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (FC Noah / Pyunik Yerevan)
- 1.75 / 1.44
- Defence rating (FC Noah / Pyunik Yerevan)
- 0.68 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Noah goals. Columns: Pyunik Yerevan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Noah | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Pyunik Yerevan | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Noah or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Pyunik Yerevan) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Noah win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Noah and Pyunik Yerevan recent form
FC Noah
6W 0D 0L
Pyunik Yerevan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Noah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
Pyunik Yerevan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Noah at home only, Pyunik Yerevan away only.
FC Noah vs Pyunik Yerevan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Noah 1 · draws 2 · Pyunik Yerevan 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Pyunik Yerevan | 0-0 | FC Noah | Armenia Premier League |
| 2026-05-03 | FC Noah | 0-0 | Pyunik Yerevan | Armenia Premier League |
| 2025-09-14 | FC Noah | 3-1 | Pyunik Yerevan | Armenia Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Alashkert vs Syunik 2026-10-16
- Gandzasar v Sardarapat — match page 2026-10-16
- FC Urartu vs Van — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Ararat vs Shirak 2026-10-17
- BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Noah, previous: Sardarapat vs FC Noah: odds and pick
- Pyunik Yerevan, previous: Pyunik Yerevan v BKMA analysis