Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Manchester United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.59
- Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Manchester United)
- 1.19 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Manchester United)
- 0.88 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Manchester United | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Madrid or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester United) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United recent form
Atletico Madrid
4W 0D 2L
Manchester United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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