Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid· Referee Glenn Nyberg

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico MadridDrawManchester United

Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Manchester United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Atletico MadridManchester United
1.92 xG per 90 2.26
1.76 npxG per 90 2.16
10.4 PPDA 12.1
10.8 Deep completions per 90 10.9
1.72 xPTS per 90 1.76

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico MadridDrawManchester United
Model57%22%22%
Market50%25%25%
Published51%24%24%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.15Now 1.94 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Madrid2.151.94-0.21
Draw3.803.80+0.00
Manchester United2.903.81+0.92

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Madrid and Manchester United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Atletico Madrid
1.35Manchester United
Total expected goals
3.57
Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Manchester United)
1.20 / 1.23
Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Manchester United)
0.87 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1 5.4% 9.3% 5.7% 2.6% 1.2% 2 6.9% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1% 1.0% 4+ 4.8% 6.5% 4.4% 2.0% 0.9%

Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Madrid51%1.95
Draw24%4.10
Manchester United24%4.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.44
Under 2.531%3.25
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.01
Double chance1X (Atletico Madrid or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Manchester United)49%2.05
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+36%2.80
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Madrid and Manchester United recent form

Atletico Madrid 4W 0D 2L
Manchester United 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Manchester United absences

  • B. Sesko leg injury
  • K. Darlow injury
  • K. Mainoo injury
  • L. Shaw injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • M. de Ligt back injury
  • N. Mazraoui injury
  • P. Dorgu hamstring injury
  • T. Heaton abdominal strain

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 21 C. Romero
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente
  6. 10 Álex Baena
  7. 5 J. Cardoso
  8. 8 Pablo Barrios
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 19 J. Álvarez
  11. 7 Lee Kang-In

Bench: J. Musso, Rodrigo Mendoza, A. Sørloth, A. Lookman, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, Marc Pubill, M. Hjulmand, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 2 Diogo Dalot
  3. 6 Lisandro Martínez
  4. 26 A. Heaven
  5. 15 L. Yoro
  6. 17 Andrey Santos
  7. 20 C. Baleba
  8. 9 M. Rashford
  9. 18 Y. Tielemans
  10. 8 Bruno Fernandes
  11. 19 B. Mbeumo

Bench: M. de Ligt, H. Maguire, M. Mount, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, A. Diallo, S. Lacey, T. Fletcher, H. Amass, Dermot William Mee, Daniel Armer

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Atletico Madrid 2 · draws 1 · Manchester United 1.

Atletico MadridDrawsManchester United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Manchester United2-1Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
2022-07-30Atletico Madrid1-0Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
2022-03-15Manchester United0-1Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
2022-02-23Atletico Madrid1-1Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match