Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid preview
In the upcoming match between Espanyol and Atletico Madrid, the 1X2 probabilities show Atletico Madrid at 47%, while Espanyol sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals are close, with Espanyol at 1.47 and Atletico Madrid at 1.51, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 63% chance according to our model, and there is a 59% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals. However, Espanyol's recent form shows 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance against a stronger Atletico Madrid side that has won 4 of their last 6 games.
Why this pick: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Espanyol | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | +10% | +4% | -14% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.77 | +0.07 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.85 | 1.81 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Espanyol and Atletico Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Espanyol / Atletico Madrid)
- 0.95 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Espanyol / Atletico Madrid)
- 0.99 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 25% | 4.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Atletico Madrid | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Espanyol or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 20% | 5.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Espanyol and Atletico Madrid recent form
Espanyol
1W 2D 3L
Atletico Madrid
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Espanyol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 1 · draws 5 · Atletico Madrid 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Atletico Madrid | 4-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-08-17 | Espanyol | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-03-29 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-08-28 | Atletico Madrid | 0-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2023-05-24 | Espanyol | 3-3 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2022-11-06 | Atletico Madrid | 1-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-04-17 | Atletico Madrid | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2021-09-12 | Espanyol | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2020-03-01 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2019-11-10 | Atletico Madrid | 3-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Deportivo La Coruna v Levante — match page 2026-10-16
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Espanyol, previous: Malaga vs Espanyol prediction
- Espanyol, next: Sestao River v Espanyol analysis
- Atletico Madrid, previous: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United prediction
- Atletico Madrid, next: VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid analysis