Real Madrid vs Sevilla preview
In the upcoming match between Real Madrid and Sevilla, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Madrid at 75% to win, while Sevilla sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. Real Madrid's expected goals stand at 2.32, compared to Sevilla's 0.78, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
However, factors that could challenge this prediction include Sevilla's recent form, which shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, and their ability to score, as both teams to score is at 51%. While Real Madrid has dominated the head-to-head with 5 wins in the last 6 encounters, Sevilla's potential to disrupt the flow could lead to a different outcome.
Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Published | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Edge | -5% | +4% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.26 | 1.25 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 6.40 | +1.15 |
| Sevilla | 11.50 | 10.25 | -1.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Madrid and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
- 1.43 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
- 0.85 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Madrid vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 75% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.31 | |
| Sevilla | 9% | 10.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Madrid or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 51% | 1.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Real Madrid and Sevilla recent form
Real Madrid
4W 0D 2L
Sevilla
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Sevilla away only.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Madrid 5 · draws 1 · Sevilla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sevilla | 0-1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-05-18 | Sevilla | 0-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-12-22 | Real Madrid | 4-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-02-25 | Real Madrid | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-10-21 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
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Before and after this match
- Real Madrid, previous: Roma – Real Madrid, 2026-10-14
- Real Madrid, next: Real Madrid vs RasenBallsport Leipzig prediction
- Sevilla, previous: Levante vs Sevilla: odds and pick