Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano preview
In the match between Getafe and Rayo Vallecano, the 1X2 probabilities show Getafe and Rayo Vallecano both at 34%, with a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. Getafe has an expected goals figure of 1.29 while Rayo Vallecano sits at 1.19.
Both teams to score has a 54% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Recent form indicates Getafe has struggled, with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Rayo Vallecano has 2 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Rayo Vallecano, who has won 3 of the last 6 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Why this pick: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 34% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.71 | 2.89 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.01 | -0.09 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 2.44 | 2.64 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
- 0.76 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
- 1.08 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 14% | 7.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano recent form
Getafe
1W 2D 3L
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rayo Vallecano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Getafe 0 · draws 3 · Rayo Vallecano 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Getafe | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2026-01-02 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-05-02 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-08-24 | Getafe | 0-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2024-04-13 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-01-02 | Getafe | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: odds and pick
- Getafe, next: Getafe – FC Lugano, 2026-10-22
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club analysis
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick