Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano, the 1X2 probabilities show Rayo Vallecano at 46% and Recreativo Huelva at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.22 for Recreativo Huelva and 1.64 for Rayo Vallecano, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.

The model suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Recreativo Huelva's recent form is not available, which could impact their performance. Rayo Vallecano's mixed results, with a recent record of D-W-L-W-L-D, may also affect the match outcome.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Recreativo Huelva	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Model	27%	27%	46%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	27%	46%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.22.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Recreativo Huelva and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Recreativo Huelva

1.64Rayo Vallecano

Total expected goals: 2.86
Attack rating (Recreativo Huelva / Rayo Vallecano): 1.00 / 0.84
Defence rating (Recreativo Huelva / Rayo Vallecano): 1.00 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 8.3% 7.7% 4.2% 2.5% 1 5.8% 12.6% 9.4% 5.1% 3.0% 2 4.3% 7.0% 5.7% 3.1% 1.8% 3 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Recreativo Huelva goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Recreativo Huelva	27%	3.67
	Draw	27%	3.75
	Rayo Vallecano	46%	2.17
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.84
	Under 2.5	46%	2.19
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.37
Double chance	1X (Recreativo Huelva or draw)	54%	1.86
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Rayo Vallecano win by 2+	25%	4.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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