Alcazar vs Malaga Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Alcazar vs Malaga preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Alcazar and Malaga, the 1X2 probabilities show Alcazar at 38%, with both teams having a 31% chance of a draw or a Malaga win. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 11%. Alcazar's expected goals stand at 1.22, while Malaga's is 1.08, indicating a slight edge for the home side.

However, the match could see different outcomes if Malaga improves their recent form, which includes three losses and two draws in their last six matches. With a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability for both teams to score, the match could be more competitive than the numbers suggest.

Alcazar vs Malaga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Alcazar	Draw	Malaga
Model	38%	31%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	31%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Alcazar and Malaga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Alcazar

1.08Malaga

Total expected goals: 2.30
Attack rating (Alcazar / Malaga): 0.97 / 0.70
Defence rating (Alcazar / Malaga): 0.80 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alcazar vs Malaga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 9.5% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1 10.9% 14.5% 7.1% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.5% 8.1% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 3 3.0% 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Alcazar goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alcazar vs Malaga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alcazar vs Malaga

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Alcazar	38%	2.63
	Draw	31%	3.23
	Malaga	31%	3.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.48
	Under 2.5	60%	1.68
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.09
	No	52%	1.92
Double chance	1X (Alcazar or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Malaga)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	Alcazar win by 2+	17%	5.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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