Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924 preview
In the Copa del Rey match between Don Benito and Extremadura 1924, the 1X2 probabilities show Don Benito at 27%, a draw at 24%, and Extremadura 1924 at 48%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. The expected goals are 1.40 for Don Benito and 1.90 for Extremadura 1924, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Both teams to score is at 65%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 64%. However, Don Benito's recent form shows a loss in their last match, which could impact their performance. Extremadura 1924 also comes off a mixed form with a loss followed by a win, adding uncertainty to the outcome.
Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924: model vs market
| Source | Don Benito | Draw | Extremadura 1924 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Don Benito and Extremadura 1924 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Don Benito / Extremadura 1924)
- 0.94 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Don Benito / Extremadura 1924)
- 1.04 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Don Benito goals. Columns: Extremadura 1924 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Don Benito | 27% | 3.65 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Extremadura 1924 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Don Benito or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Extremadura 1924) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Extremadura 1924 win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Don Benito and Extremadura 1924 recent form
Don Benito
0W 0D 1L
Extremadura 1924
1W 0D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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