Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Ciudad de Lucena and Rayo Majadahonda, the 1X2 probabilities show Rayo Majadahonda at 65% and Ciudad de Lucena at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Rayo Majadahonda's expected goals stand at 2.61, while Ciudad de Lucena's is 1.29.
The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 68%. However, recent form shows Ciudad de Lucena has lost their last two matches, while Rayo Majadahonda also lost their last game. This recent trend could impact performance and the final outcome.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda: model vs market
| Source | Ciudad de Lucena | Draw | Rayo Majadahonda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.29.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ciudad de Lucena and Rayo Majadahonda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Ciudad de Lucena / Rayo Majadahonda)
- 0.80 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Ciudad de Lucena / Rayo Majadahonda)
- 1.44 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ciudad de Lucena goals. Columns: Rayo Majadahonda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ciudad de Lucena | 16% | 6.13 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Rayo Majadahonda | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ciudad de Lucena or draw) | 35% | 2.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Majadahonda) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Majadahonda win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ciudad de Lucena and Rayo Majadahonda recent form
Ciudad de Lucena
0W 0D 2L
Rayo Majadahonda
0W 0D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
- Manresa v Sant Andreu — match page 2026-10-27
- Castellonense vs Almeria — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa 2026-10-27
- Llanera v Ponferradina — match page 2026-10-27
- RSD Alcalá vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes 2026-10-27
- Atlético Paso vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924 2026-10-27