Manresa vs Sant Andreu Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Manresa vs Sant Andreu preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Manresa and Sant Andreu, the 1X2 probabilities show Sant Andreu at 50% to win, compared to Manresa's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance.

The model indicates a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Manresa has expected goals of 1.14, while Sant Andreu has higher expected goals at 1.71. Manresa's recent form is not available, while Sant Andreu has a mixed record with a draw, a win, and two losses in their last four matches. These factors could influence the outcome.

Manresa vs Sant Andreu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Manresa	Draw	Sant Andreu
Model	24%	26%	50%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	26%	50%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.14.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Manresa and Sant Andreu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Manresa

1.71Sant Andreu

Total expected goals: 2.85
Attack rating (Manresa / Sant Andreu): 1.00 / 0.88
Defence rating (Manresa / Sant Andreu): 1.00 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manresa vs Sant Andreu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 8.7% 8.4% 4.8% 3.0% 1 5.5% 12.4% 9.6% 5.5% 3.4% 2 3.8% 6.4% 5.5% 3.1% 2.0% 3 1.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Manresa goals. Columns: Sant Andreu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manresa vs Sant Andreu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manresa vs Sant Andreu

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Manresa	24%	4.11
	Draw	26%	3.82
	Sant Andreu	50%	2.02
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.84
	Under 2.5	46%	2.19
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.32
Double chance	1X (Manresa or draw)	50%	1.98
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Sant Andreu)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Sant Andreu win by 2+	27%	3.65
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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