Castellonense vs Almeria Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Castellonense vs Almeria preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Castellonense and Almeria, the 1X2 probabilities show Almeria at 66% to win, while Castellonense sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, which aligns with Almeria's strong recent form of 6 consecutive wins.

Almeria's expected goals stand at 2.02, compared to Castellonense's 0.74, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the visitors. However, the possibility of both teams to score is at 46%, suggesting that if Castellonense can find the net, it could impact the outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the prediction.

Castellonense vs Almeria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Castellonense	Draw	Almeria
Model	12%	22%	66%
Market	—	—	—
Published	12%	22%	66%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.74.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Castellonense and Almeria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.74Castellonense

2.02Almeria

Total expected goals: 2.76
Attack rating (Castellonense / Almeria): 1.00 / 1.04
Defence rating (Castellonense / Almeria): 1.00 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Castellonense vs Almeria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 11.9% 12.9% 8.7% 7.0% 1 3.7% 10.4% 9.6% 6.4% 5.2% 2 1.7% 3.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.9% 3 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Castellonense goals. Columns: Almeria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Castellonense vs Almeria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Castellonense vs Almeria

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Castellonense	12%	8.53
	Draw	22%	4.57
	Almeria	66%	1.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.92
	Under 2.5	48%	2.08
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.16
	No	54%	1.86
Double chance	1X (Castellonense or draw)	34%	2.98
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Almeria)	88%	1.13
Handicap -1	Almeria win by 2+	42%	2.36
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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