Real Sociedad II vs Almeria preview
In the upcoming match between Real Sociedad II and Almeria, the 1X2 probabilities show Almeria at 51%, while Real Sociedad II sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, which aligns with Almeria's strong recent form of 6 consecutive wins compared to Real Sociedad II's 1 win in their last 6 matches.
The model also suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. However, if Real Sociedad II manages to improve their attacking output, currently at an expected goals rate of just 0.92, they could challenge Almeria's dominance.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad II | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 48% |
| Published | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Edge | -11% | -3% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almeria, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II | 3.25 | 3.49 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.61 | +0.06 |
| Almeria | 2.06 | 1.96 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad II and Almeria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad II / Almeria)
- 0.98 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad II / Almeria)
- 1.37 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad II goals. Columns: Almeria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad II vs Almeria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad II | 24% | 4.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Almeria | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad II or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Almeria) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win by 2+ | 37% | 2.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Real Sociedad II and Almeria recent form
Real Sociedad II
1W 1D 4L
Almeria
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Sociedad II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Almeria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad II at home only, Almeria away only.
Real Sociedad II vs Almeria head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Real Sociedad II 0 · draws 1 · Almeria 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Almeria | 5-1 | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División |
| 2025-08-29 | Real Sociedad II | 2-2 | Almeria | Segunda División |
| 2022-05-13 | Real Sociedad II | 0-2 | Almeria | Segunda División |
| 2021-10-21 | Almeria | 3-1 | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leganes vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- Las Palmas v Castellón — match page 2026-10-17
- AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Granada vs Cadiz — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid vs Eldense 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Real Sociedad II, previous: Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II prediction
- Almeria, previous: Almeria vs Leganes prediction
- Almeria, next: Castellonense v Almeria analysis