Granada vs Cadiz preview
Granada faces Cadiz with a 49% chance of winning compared to Cadiz's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Granada's expected goals of 1.55 against Cadiz's 1.35. Granada's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Cadiz has struggled with 1 win and 5 losses.
For those considering "Over 2.5 goals," the model indicates a 55% probability, and "both teams to score" stands at 59%. However, Granada's inconsistent form could impact their performance, and Cadiz may improve after a tough stretch. This uncertainty could lead to different outcomes than predicted.
Why this pick: Granada vs Cadiz
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Granada 10, Cadiz 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Granada vs Cadiz: model vs market
| Source | Granada | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -10% | +1% | +10% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Granada vs Cadiz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Granada, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 1.85 | 1.80 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.50 | -0.12 |
| Cadiz | 4.46 | 4.20 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Granada and Cadiz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Granada / Cadiz)
- 1.07 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Granada / Cadiz)
- 1.16 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Granada vs Cadiz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Granada goals. Columns: Cadiz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Granada vs Cadiz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Granada vs Cadiz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Cadiz | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Granada or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Cadiz) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Granada win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Granada and Cadiz recent form
Granada
2W 1D 3L
Cadiz
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Granada at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Cadiz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Granada at home only, Cadiz away only.
Granada vs Cadiz head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Granada 2 · draws 1 · Cadiz 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Cadiz | 1-2 | Granada | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-25 | Granada | 0-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2024-03-29 | Cadiz | 1-0 | Granada | La Liga |
| 2024-01-03 | Granada | 2-0 | Cadiz | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II v Almeria — match page 2026-10-17
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- Las Palmas v Castellón — match page 2026-10-17
- AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid vs Eldense 2026-10-18
- Burgos vs Sabadell 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Granada, previous: Burgos – Granada, 2026-10-12
- Granada, next: Cieza – Granada, 2026-10-28
- Cadiz, previous: Cadiz – Sporting Gijon, 2026-10-11
- Cadiz, next: Xerez – Cadiz, 2026-10-28