AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo preview
In the match between AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Oviedo at 39% to win, while AD Ceuta FC is at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 49%, indicating a close contest, while Over 2.5 goals has a 42% probability.
AD Ceuta FC's expected goals are 1.28 compared to Real Oviedo's 1.10, suggesting a slight edge for the home team in creating chances. However, AD Ceuta FC's recent form includes 3 matches without a win, which could impact their performance. Real Oviedo has shown better form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which might influence the outcome.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo: model vs market
| Source | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Oviedo, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 3.22 | 2.88 | -0.34 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.25 | -0.07 |
| Real Oviedo | 2.32 | 2.38 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (AD Ceuta FC / Real Oviedo)
- 0.85 / 0.89
- Defence rating (AD Ceuta FC / Real Oviedo)
- 1.26 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AD Ceuta FC goals. Columns: Real Oviedo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Real Oviedo | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AD Ceuta FC or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Oviedo) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win by 2+ | 17% | 5.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo recent form
AD Ceuta FC
1W 2D 3L
Real Oviedo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AD Ceuta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC at home only, Real Oviedo away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II v Almeria — match page 2026-10-17
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- Las Palmas v Castellón — match page 2026-10-17
- Granada vs Cadiz — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid vs Eldense 2026-10-18
- Burgos vs Sabadell 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- AD Ceuta FC, previous: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: odds and pick
- AD Ceuta FC, next: Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC: odds and pick
- Real Oviedo, previous: Real Oviedo – Eibar, 2026-10-12
- Real Oviedo, next: Numancia vs Real Oviedo: odds and pick