Real Valladolid vs Eldense preview
In the match between Real Valladolid and Eldense, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Valladolid at 48%, while Eldense stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Real Valladolid has an expected goals figure of 1.49 compared to Eldense's 1.14, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential.
However, the chances of both teams to score sit at 54%, suggesting that Eldense could find the net. Additionally, the possibility of Over 2.5 goals is at 49%. Recent form also plays a role, with Real Valladolid showing mixed results and Eldense coming off a strong run. This could influence the outcome and challenge the predicted scoreline.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense: model vs market
| Source | Real Valladolid | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.14.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Valladolid, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | 2.04 | 1.90 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.53 | 3.40 | -0.13 |
| Eldense | 3.74 | 3.90 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Valladolid and Eldense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Real Valladolid / Eldense)
- 1.14 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Real Valladolid / Eldense)
- 0.97 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Valladolid goals. Columns: Eldense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Valladolid vs Eldense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Valladolid vs Eldense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Eldense | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Valladolid or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Eldense) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win by 2+ | 22% | 4.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Real Valladolid and Eldense recent form
Real Valladolid
3W 2D 1L
Eldense
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Valladolid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Valladolid at home only, Eldense away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- Las Palmas v Castellón — match page 2026-10-17
- AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Granada vs Cadiz — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Burgos vs Sabadell 2026-10-18
- Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Real Valladolid, previous: Real Valladolid vs Albacete: odds and pick
- Real Valladolid, next: Covadonga v Real Valladolid analysis
- Eldense, previous: Eldense v Cordoba analysis