Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Eldense vs Cordoba

· Nuevo Pepico Amat, Alicante· Referee Marta Huerta de Aza

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Eldense to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EldenseDrawCordoba

Eldense vs Cordoba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEldenseDrawCordoba
Model52%25%23%
Market43%26%31%
Published45%26%29%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.21.
  • The market prices Eldense below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eldense vs Cordoba odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Eldense, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.50Now 2.15 -0.35
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eldense2.502.15-0.35
Draw3.583.52-0.06
Cordoba2.753.00+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eldense and Cordoba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Eldense
1.21Cordoba
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Eldense / Cordoba)
0.95 / 1.14
Defence rating (Eldense / Cordoba)
0.91 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eldense vs Cordoba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1 7.5% 11.4% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 3 5.0% 6.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 3.6% 4.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Eldense goals. Columns: Cordoba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eldense vs Cordoba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eldense vs Cordoba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eldense45%2.21
Draw26%3.88
Cordoba29%3.45
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Eldense or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Cordoba)55%1.83
Handicap -1Eldense win by 2+30%3.31
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eldense and Cordoba recent form

Eldense 2W 1D 3L
Cordoba 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eldense at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Cordoba away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Eldense at home only, Cordoba away only.

Expected lineups

Eldense lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Juanpa
  2. 3 Juan Larios
  3. 4 F. Smand
  4. 5 Alex Serradell
  5. 19 A. Ibarrondo
  6. 33 Aingeru Olabarrieta
  7. 15 Carlos Guirao
  8. 14 J. Smith
  9. 10 Fidel
  10. 11 Manu Nieto
  11. 7 Jorge Rastrojo

Bench: Iker Recio, Borja Calvo, Marcos Bustillo, Jesús Clemente, J. Yanda, Jordi Martín, Javi Martínez, Dinis Rodrigues, J. Olaizola, D. Bernabeu

Cordoba lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Iker Álvarez
  2. 3 Dani Tasende
  3. 16 Rubén Alves
  4. 20 Nélson Monte
  5. 30 Daniel Budesca
  6. 14 Adnane Ghailan
  7. 8 Isma Ruiz
  8. 28 Eder García
  9. 11 Diego Bri
  10. 9 Percan
  11. 23 Cristian Carracedo

Bench: Álex Martín, Juan Gutiérrez, D. Caceres, T. Zidane, Kevin Villodres, Guilherme Fernandes, V. Sanchez, Enol Rodríguez, Ibai Sanz, Carlos Albarrán, S. El Jebari, Egoitz Muñoz

Eldense vs Cordoba head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Eldense 0 · draws 1 · Cordoba 1.

EldenseDrawsCordoba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-26Eldense1-1CordobaSegunda División
2024-10-26Cordoba2-0EldenseSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match