FC Andorra vs Castellón: model vs market
| Source | FC Andorra | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Andorra and Castellón expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (FC Andorra / Castellón)
- 1.03 / 1.28
- Defence rating (FC Andorra / Castellón)
- 1.17 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Andorra vs Castellón score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Andorra goals. Columns: Castellón goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Andorra vs Castellón goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Andorra vs Castellón
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Andorra | 19% | 5.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Castellón | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Andorra or draw) | 45% | 2.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Castellón) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Andorra and Castellón recent form
FC Andorra
1W 1D 4L
Castellón
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Andorra at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Castellón away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Andorra at home only, Castellón away only.
Expected lineups
FC Andorra lineup · 5-4-1
- 25 Jesús Owono
- 20 Martí Vilà
- 3 L. Spatz
- 14 Sergio Molina
- 23 Diego Alende
- 17 T. Carrique
- 21 Moró Sidibe
- 10 Marc Domènech
- 8 E. Akman
- 15 Jordi Cano
- 22 D. Diaz
Bench: N. Ratti, Juan Serrano, Hugo Solozábal, Álex Calvo, Julian Dean Rijkhoff, L. de León, E. Sali, R. Schneider, Nacho Quintana, S. Golubovic, T. Olmedo, Hugo López
Castellón lineup · 4-4-2
- 13 R. Matthys
- 12 Lucas Alcázar
- 4 A. Sienra
- 5 Alberto Jiménez
- 22 J. Mellot
- 18 Pablo Santiago
- 8 Barri
- 6 M. Orozco
- 10 Israel Suero
- 16 A. Jakobsen
- 7 Raúl Sánchez
Bench: A. Saipi, F. Ceccherini, Iñigo Córdoba, I. Kostis, Hamza Bellari, Martín Conde, Álvaro Martín, Varo García, D. Muale Nzanza, Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo, A. Gala, M. Willmann
FC Andorra vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Andorra 2 · draws 0 · Castellón 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Castellón | 2-0 | FC Andorra | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Andorra | 1-3 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 2022-03-26 | FC Andorra | 1-0 | Castellón | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| 2021-12-11 | Castellón | 1-3 | FC Andorra | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| 2019-12-08 | Castellón | 3-1 | FC Andorra | Primera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell 2026-10-10
- Eldense vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II 2026-10-10
- Almeria vs Leganes — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Mallorca v Las Palmas — match page 2026-10-11
- Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon 2026-10-11
- Real Valladolid v Albacete — match page 2026-10-12
- Burgos v Granada — match page 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- FC Andorra, next: Girona vs FC Andorra: odds and pick
- Castellón, next: Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction