Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell

· Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta· Referee Olatz Rivera Olmedo

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Sabadell to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AD Ceuta FCDrawSabadell

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAD Ceuta FCDrawSabadell
Model28%31%41%
Market30%29%41%
Published29%30%41%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sabadell, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.19Now 2.25 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AD Ceuta FC3.413.07-0.34
Draw3.413.15-0.26
Sabadell2.192.25+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.98AD Ceuta FC
1.25Sabadell
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sabadell)
0.87 / 0.85
Defence rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sabadell)
1.25 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 12.1% 8.4% 3.5% 1.4% 1 9.2% 14.5% 8.3% 3.4% 1.4% 2 5.2% 6.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 3 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: AD Ceuta FC goals. Columns: Sabadell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AD Ceuta FC29%3.40
Draw30%3.37
Sabadell41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.58
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.17
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (AD Ceuta FC or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Sabadell)71%1.42
Handicap -1Sabadell win by 2+19%5.27
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell recent form

AD Ceuta FC 1W 2D 3L
Sabadell 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AD Ceuta FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sabadell away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC at home only, Sabadell away only.

Expected lineups

AD Ceuta FC lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 13 Guille Vallejo
  2. 3 José Matos
  3. 34 D. Mas
  4. 6 Carlos Hernández
  5. 4 Albert Caparrós
  6. 15 Joaquín
  7. 19 E. Sevikyan
  8. 8 Kuki
  9. 9 Jordi Escobar
  10. 7 Alejandro Camacho Ramírez

Bench: Pedro López, Adrián Lapeña, Marino Illescas, Cedric Teguia, Y. Bodiger, Mawuli Mensah, Alex Petxarroman, Álex Meléndez, Arick Betancourt, O. Sadik

Sabadell lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Diego Fuoli
  2. 4 Miki Codina
  3. 6 Edgar González
  4. 14 Óscar Sanz
  5. 22 Q. Liameed
  6. 21 Alain Ribeiro
  7. 20 Urri
  8. 7 Ton Ripoll
  9. 10 Ángel Baena
  10. 23 J. Priego

Bench: Pere Pons, N. Obolskiy, Gastón Valles, J. Ortega, Y. Rahmani, Eneko Aguilar, Marc Vidal, José Luis Català

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match