AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: model vs market
| Source | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Edge | 0% | +3% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sabadell, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 3.41 | 3.38 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.30 | -0.11 |
| Sabadell | 2.19 | 2.05 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sabadell)
- 0.87 / 0.85
- Defence rating (AD Ceuta FC / Sabadell)
- 1.25 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AD Ceuta FC goals. Columns: Sabadell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Sabadell | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AD Ceuta FC or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Sabadell) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win by 2+ | 19% | 5.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell recent form
AD Ceuta FC
1W 2D 3L
Sabadell
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AD Ceuta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabadell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC at home only, Sabadell away only.
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