Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Mallorca vs Las Palmas

· Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Parma· Referee Gorka Etayo Herrera

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Mallorca to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MallorcaDrawLas Palmas

Why this pick: Mallorca vs Las Palmas

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mallorca 10, Las Palmas 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MallorcaLas Palmas
1.47 xG per 90 0.84
1.47 npxG per 90 0.69
7.7 PPDA 9.9
6.2 Deep completions per 90 2.8
1.28 xPTS per 90 0.93

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Mallorca vs Las Palmas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMallorcaDrawLas Palmas
Model51%30%19%
Market62%23%15%
Published59%25%16%
Edge-3%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mallorca vs Las Palmas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mallorca, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.61Now 1.50 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mallorca1.611.50-0.11
Draw3.944.08+0.14
Las Palmas5.276.05+0.78

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mallorca and Las Palmas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Mallorca
0.74Las Palmas
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (Mallorca / Las Palmas)
0.80 / 1.06
Defence rating (Mallorca / Las Palmas)
0.60 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mallorca vs Las Palmas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 7.6% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1 15.3% 13.5% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 11.4% 8.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 3 5.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Mallorca goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mallorca vs Las Palmas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mallorca vs Las Palmas

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mallorca59%1.69
Draw25%4.06
Las Palmas16%6.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.79
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.47
No59%1.68
Double chance1X (Mallorca or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Las Palmas)41%2.45
Handicap -1Mallorca win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mallorca and Las Palmas recent form

Mallorca 3W 2D 1L
Las Palmas 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mallorca at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Las Palmas away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mallorca at home only, Las Palmas away only.

Expected lineups

Mallorca lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Arnau Tenas
  2. 5 Alberto Moreno
  3. 21 Raíllo
  4. 24 M. Valjent
  5. 15 John Nwankwo
  6. 19 Josep Cerdà
  7. 7 Álex Sala
  8. 6 Antonio Sánchez
  9. 33 Adrian Liso
  10. 20 Pablo Torre
  11. 18 Fuentes

Bench: Guille Fernández, Toni Lato, David López, Abdón Prats, Darder, Zito Luvumbo, L. Bergström, A. Buksa, Arnau Puigmal, Iván Cuéllar, J. Kalumba, M. Calatayud

Las Palmas lineup · 4-5-1

  1. 13 José Caro
  2. 15 Juan Herzog
  3. 4 Álex Suárez
  4. 25 Valentín Pezzolesi
  5. 24 Iván Jaime
  6. 12 E. Loiodice
  7. 20 Kirian Rodríguez
  8. 6 Iñaki González Zambrano
  9. 11 T. Miyashiro
  10. 7 Jefté Betancor

Bench: N. Opoku, Manu Fuster, G. Bonfanti, A. Rodriguez, A. Bassinga, Elías Romero, I. Medina, Rafa Cruz, Adrián Suárez

Mallorca vs Las Palmas head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Mallorca 4 · draws 3 · Las Palmas 1.

MallorcaDrawsLas Palmas
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-16Mallorca3-1Las PalmasLa Liga
2024-11-23Las Palmas2-3MallorcaLa Liga
2024-05-11Mallorca1-0Las PalmasLa Liga
2023-08-12Las Palmas1-1MallorcaLa Liga
2021-04-04Las Palmas1-1MallorcaSegunda División
2021-01-10Mallorca0-1Las PalmasSegunda División
2019-03-17Las Palmas1-2MallorcaSegunda División
2018-10-27Mallorca2-2Las PalmasSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match