Why this pick: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mallorca 10, Las Palmas 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas: model vs market
| Source | Mallorca | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | -9% | +7% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mallorca, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | 1.61 | 1.53 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.90 | -0.04 |
| Las Palmas | 5.27 | 5.50 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mallorca and Las Palmas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Mallorca / Las Palmas)
- 0.81 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Mallorca / Las Palmas)
- 0.60 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mallorca goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mallorca vs Las Palmas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Las Palmas | 17% | 5.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mallorca or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Palmas) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mallorca and Las Palmas recent form
Mallorca
3W 2D 1L
Las Palmas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mallorca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Palmas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mallorca at home only, Las Palmas away only.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Mallorca 3 · draws 1 · Las Palmas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Mallorca | 3-1 | Las Palmas | La Liga |
| 2024-11-23 | Las Palmas | 2-3 | Mallorca | La Liga |
| 2024-05-11 | Mallorca | 1-0 | Las Palmas | La Liga |
| 2023-08-12 | Las Palmas | 1-1 | Mallorca | La Liga |
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