Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | Cadiz | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cadiz, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 2.50 | 2.13 | -0.37 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.14 | -0.08 |
| Sporting Gijon | 2.75 | 3.52 | +0.77 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Cadiz / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.07 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cadiz / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.04 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cadiz goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cadiz or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win by 2+ | 20% | 4.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon recent form
Cadiz
1W 2D 3L
Sporting Gijon
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cadiz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cadiz at home only, Sporting Gijon away only.
Expected lineups
Cadiz lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 David Gil
- 3 Sergio Arribas
- 6 Manu Fernández
- 4 Javi Castro
- 27 J. Diaz Peregrina
- 28 D. A. Zarate Hidalgo
- 18 Jandro Orellana
- 16 Antonio Cordero
- 24 Ibon Sánchez
- 17 A. Moueffek
- 21 V. Kopotun
Bench: Beñat de Jesús, M. Doué, E. Aghama, Álvaro García, Javi Ontiveros, Jokin Ezkieta, B. Kovačević, Urko Izeta, Borja Vazquez, Damián Rodríguez, G. Petit, N. Ukwuije
Sporting Gijon lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Rubén Yáñez
- 44 Andrés Cuenca
- 23 Jorge Sáenz
- 4 E. Gularte
- 2 Guille Rosas
- 14 Álex Corredera
- 8 M. Rodriguez
- 7 Gaspar Campos
- 10 César Gelabert
- 27 Enol Prendes
- 16 A. Sarco
Bench: Pablo García, Diego Sánchez, Arana, Pablo Vázquez, M. Loum, Hugo Guillamón, Iker Martínez, M. Conde, C. Ferreres
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cadiz 3 · draws 3 · Sporting Gijon 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sporting Gijon | 3-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2026-01-09 | Cadiz | 3-2 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2025-04-25 | Cadiz | 1-0 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2024-11-02 | Sporting Gijon | 2-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2022-01-15 | Sporting Gijon | 0-0 | Cadiz | Copa del Rey |
| 2020-02-21 | Sporting Gijon | 1-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2019-11-01 | Cadiz | 3-1 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2019-06-08 | Sporting Gijon | 1-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2018-10-21 | Cadiz | 0-0 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2018-04-22 | Cadiz | 0-0 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
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Before and after this match
- Cadiz, next: Granada vs Cadiz prediction
- Sporting Gijon, next: Sporting Gijon v Albacete analysis