Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | Cadiz | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- The market prices Cadiz below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cadiz, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.20 | -0.02 |
| Sporting Gijon | 2.75 | 2.70 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Cadiz / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.07 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cadiz / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.04 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cadiz goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cadiz or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win by 2+ | 20% | 5.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon recent form
Cadiz
1W 2D 3L
Sporting Gijon
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cadiz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cadiz at home only, Sporting Gijon away only.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cadiz 1 · draws 0 · Sporting Gijon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sporting Gijon | 3-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2026-01-09 | Cadiz | 3-2 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
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