Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Real Valladolid vs Albacete

· Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid· Referee Miranda Bolano, Daniel

Full time5 – 0

Alin prediction was Real Valladolid to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real ValladolidDrawAlbacete

Real Valladolid vs Albacete: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal ValladolidDrawAlbacete
Model49%28%23%
Market48%28%24%
Published48%28%24%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Valladolid, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.87Now 1.95 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Valladolid1.871.95+0.08
Draw3.393.32-0.07
Albacete4.063.83-0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Valladolid and Albacete expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Real Valladolid
0.96Albacete
Total expected goals
2.47
Attack rating (Real Valladolid / Albacete)
0.84 / 0.77
Defence rating (Real Valladolid / Albacete)
1.07 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 6.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.5% 13.5% 5.9% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.6% 9.2% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.8% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Real Valladolid goals. Columns: Albacete goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Valladolid vs Albacete

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Valladolid48%2.09
Draw28%3.56
Albacete24%4.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.23
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Real Valladolid or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Albacete)52%1.92
Handicap -1Real Valladolid win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Valladolid and Albacete recent form

Real Valladolid 2W 3D 1L
Albacete 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Valladolid at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Albacete away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Valladolid at home only, Albacete away only.

Expected lineups

Real Valladolid lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 1 Álvaro Aceves
  2. 27 Iván Garriel
  3. 4 David Torres
  4. 15 Pablo Tomeo
  5. 14 Iván Alejo
  6. 24 S. Jurić
  7. 21 J. Ponceau
  8. 30 Víctor Fernández
  9. 8 T. Ojeda
  10. 19 Adrian Arnuncio
  11. 9 Juanmi Latasa

Bench: Trilli, Homam Ahmed, Ramón Martínez, M. Lachuer, Yeray Cabanzón, Dani Martín, Álex Balboa, Victor Barberá, Clerc, R. Duiven, K. de Rooij, T. Abed

Albacete lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Diego Mariño
  2. 21 Carlos Neva
  3. 22 Lluís López
  4. 24 Vallejo
  5. 15 Fran Gámez
  6. 11 Víctor Valverde
  7. 6 Antonio Pacheco
  8. 14 San Bartolomé
  9. 17 José Corpas
  10. 9 Mario Soberón
  11. 10 Róber

Bench: Carlos Marín, Agus Medina, Javi Villar, Higinio Marín, Sergio Ortu, Alex Rubio, D. Bernabeu, A. Velilla, A. Albarracín, Jota Domingo, Antonio David

Real Valladolid vs Albacete head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Real Valladolid 1 · draws 1 · Albacete 4.

Real ValladolidDrawsAlbacete
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Real Valladolid0-1AlbaceteSegunda División
2025-09-21Albacete2-0Real ValladolidSegunda División
2024-02-12Real Valladolid0-0AlbaceteSegunda División
2023-09-01Albacete2-0Real ValladolidSegunda División
2018-05-12Real Valladolid3-2AlbaceteSegunda División
2017-12-09Albacete2-1Real ValladolidSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match