Real Valladolid vs Albacete Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

Real Valladolid vs Albacete: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Real Valladolid	Draw	Albacete
Model	48%	29%	23%
Market	48%	28%	24%
Published	48%	28%	24%
Edge	0%	0%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.97.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Valladolid, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.87Now 1.93 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Real Valladolid	1.87	1.93	+0.06
Draw	3.39	3.30	-0.09
Albacete	4.06	3.85	-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Valladolid and Albacete expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Real Valladolid

0.97Albacete

Total expected goals: 2.47
Attack rating (Real Valladolid / Albacete): 0.85 / 0.77
Defence rating (Real Valladolid / Albacete): 1.07 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 7.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.5% 13.5% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.2% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.8% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Real Valladolid goals. Columns: Albacete goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Valladolid vs Albacete

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Real Valladolid	48%	2.08
	Draw	28%	3.55
	Albacete	24%	4.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.23
	Under 2.5	55%	1.81
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.02
	No	51%	1.98
Double chance	1X (Real Valladolid or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Albacete)	52%	1.92
Handicap -1	Real Valladolid win by 2+	25%	3.99
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Real Valladolid and Albacete recent form

Real Valladolid 2W 3D 1L

Albacete 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Valladolid at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Albacete away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-3
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Valladolid at home only, Albacete away only.

Real Valladolid vs Albacete head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Real Valladolid 0 · draws 0 · Albacete 2.

0% 0% 100%

Real ValladolidDrawsAlbacete

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-24	Real Valladolid	0-1	Albacete	Segunda División
2025-09-21	Albacete	2-0	Real Valladolid	Segunda División

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Prediction snapshot Real Valladolid to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Real Valladolid