Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Almeria vs Leganes

· UD Almería Stadium, Almeria· Referee Gonzalo Romero Freixas

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Almeria to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlmeriaDrawLeganes

Why this pick: Almeria vs Leganes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Almeria 10, Leganes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AlmeriaLeganes
1.23 xG per 90 1.37
1.23 npxG per 90 1.37
16.0 PPDA 9.6
3.2 Deep completions per 90 5.2
0.96 xPTS per 90 1.40

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Almeria vs Leganes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlmeriaDrawLeganes
Model70%22%8%
Market57%24%19%
Published61%23%16%
Edge+3%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.52.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Almeria below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Almeria vs Leganes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almeria, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.67Now 1.63 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Almeria1.671.63-0.04
Draw4.053.95-0.10
Leganes4.674.88+0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Almeria and Leganes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Almeria
0.52Leganes
Total expected goals
2.45
Attack rating (Almeria / Leganes)
1.11 / 0.61
Defence rating (Almeria / Leganes)
0.72 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almeria vs Leganes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.5% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1 15.8% 9.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2 16.1% 8.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 10.3% 5.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 7.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Almeria goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almeria vs Leganes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almeria vs Leganes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Almeria61%1.65
Draw23%4.33
Leganes16%6.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.26
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.82
No65%1.55
Double chance1X (Almeria or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Leganes)39%2.53
Handicap -1Almeria win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almeria and Leganes recent form

Almeria 5W 0D 1L
Leganes 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almeria at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leganes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Almeria at home only, Leganes away only.

Expected lineups

Almeria lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Andrés Fernández
  2. 3 Álex Muñoz
  3. 18 F. Bonini
  4. 21 Chumi
  5. 22 D. Chirino
  6. 14 Javi Muñoz
  7. 29 S. Džodić
  8. 17 B. Cipenga
  9. 11 Sergio Arribas
  10. 33 Quim Junyent
  11. 9 Thalys

Bench: Marcos Luna, Jorge Pulido, Jon Morcillo, Nico Melamed, Léo Baptistão, Fernando Martínez, Leonardo Lelo, Adri Embarba, Miguel de la Fuente, K. Kone, Á. Yaakobishvili

Leganes lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 13 L. Zidane
  2. 23 Álvaro Tejero
  3. 2 Marvel
  4. 5 Ignasi Miquel
  5. 6 Lalo Aguilar
  6. 11 Naim García
  7. 14 Dani Rodríguez
  8. 20 Miguel Atienza
  9. 10 Z. Buurmeester
  10. 21 Álvaro Morata
  11. 17 Ismaël Gharbi

Bench: Raúl Fernández, Javi Montero, Rubén Pulido, Y. Kechta, Álex Millán, Enric Franquesa, U. del Cura, Andrés Campos, P. Soko, Álex Sancris, A. Diawara

Almeria vs Leganes head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Almeria 3 · draws 2 · Leganes 2.

AlmeriaDrawsLeganes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Almeria2-1LeganesSegunda División
2025-11-22Leganes0-3AlmeriaSegunda División
2025-01-15Almeria2-3LeganesCopa del Rey
2022-05-29Leganes2-2AlmeriaSegunda División
2021-10-29Almeria1-0LeganesSegunda División
2021-03-27Almeria1-1LeganesSegunda División
2021-02-17Leganes2-1AlmeriaSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match