Why this pick: Almeria vs Leganes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Almeria 10, Leganes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Almeria vs Leganes: model vs market
| Source | Almeria | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 22% | 8% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | +13% | -2% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almeria vs Leganes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almeria, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 1.67 | 1.62 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.90 | -0.15 |
| Leganes | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almeria and Leganes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Almeria / Leganes)
- 1.11 / 0.61
- Defence rating (Almeria / Leganes)
- 0.72 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almeria vs Leganes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almeria goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almeria vs Leganes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almeria vs Leganes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Leganes | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.82 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almeria or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Leganes) | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almeria and Leganes recent form
Almeria
5W 0D 1L
Leganes
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almeria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almeria at home only, Leganes away only.
Almeria vs Leganes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Almeria 2 · draws 0 · Leganes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Almeria | 2-1 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-22 | Leganes | 0-3 | Almeria | Segunda División |
| 2025-01-15 | Almeria | 2-3 | Leganes | Copa del Rey |
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