Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Burgos vs Granada

· Municipal El Plantio, Burgos· Referee Salvador Lax

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Burgos to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BurgosDrawGranada

Burgos vs Granada: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBurgosDrawGranada
Model58%24%18%
Market39%30%32%
Published43%28%28%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Burgos below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Burgos vs Granada odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burgos, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.29Now 2.42 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Burgos2.292.42+0.13
Draw3.273.15-0.13
Granada2.982.92-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Burgos and Granada expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Burgos
0.98Granada
Total expected goals
2.91
Attack rating (Burgos / Granada)
0.99 / 1.10
Defence rating (Burgos / Granada)
0.76 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Burgos vs Granada score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 4.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 1 9.5% 11.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.1% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 3 6.5% 6.4% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 4.9% 4.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Burgos goals. Columns: Granada goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Burgos vs Granada goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Burgos vs Granada

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Burgos43%2.30
Draw28%3.55
Granada28%3.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.26
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Burgos or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Granada)57%1.77
Handicap -1Burgos win by 2+35%2.83
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Burgos and Granada recent form

Burgos 3W 2D 1L
Granada 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Burgos at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Granada away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Burgos at home only, Granada away only.

Expected lineups

Burgos lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Ander Cantero
  2. 22 Brais Martínez
  3. 8 Grego
  4. 15 Oier Luengo
  5. 2 Álex
  6. 19 Javi Llabrés
  7. 12 Unai Vencedor
  8. 4 P. Galdames
  9. 14 David González
  10. 16 Curro Sánchez
  11. 9 Álex Forés

Bench: Bruno Iribarne, Ignasi Vilarrasa, Sergio González, Jon Karrikaburu, K. Appin, Víctor Mollejo, Saúl del Cerro, José Gragera, Fermin Garcia, Alberto Dadie, S. Lencinas, I. Martinez

Granada lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Alberto Flores
  2. 16 Diego Pampín
  3. 5 Manu Lama
  4. 30 Juan José Flores Castro
  5. 18 Sergio López
  6. 6 Gumbau
  7. 4 Rubén Alcaraz
  8. 8 Pedro Alemañ
  9. 27 M. Gambin
  10. 11 José Arnáiz
  11. 7 Sergio Rodelas

Bench: Pau Casadesús, Diego Hormigo, Jorge Pascual, Raúl Lizoain, K. Bamba, B. Diallo, B. Gimber, D. Rodriguez, A. Garcia, B. Dembele, O. M. Chukwuemeka

Burgos vs Granada head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Burgos 1 · draws 3 · Granada 2.

BurgosDrawsGranada
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Granada0-1BurgosSegunda División
2025-09-22Burgos1-1GranadaSegunda División
2025-01-10Granada0-0BurgosSegunda División
2024-09-29Burgos2-2GranadaSegunda División
2023-03-04Burgos1-3GranadaSegunda División
2022-12-11Granada1-0BurgosSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match