Burgos vs Granada: model vs market
| Source | Burgos | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | +19% | -5% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +19.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Burgos vs Granada odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Burgos, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 2.29 | 2.38 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.25 | -0.02 |
| Granada | 2.98 | 2.88 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burgos and Granada expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Burgos / Granada)
- 1.00 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Burgos / Granada)
- 0.76 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burgos vs Granada score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burgos goals. Columns: Granada goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burgos vs Granada goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burgos vs Granada
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Granada | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burgos or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Granada) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burgos and Granada recent form
Burgos
3W 2D 1L
Granada
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burgos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Granada away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burgos at home only, Granada away only.
Burgos vs Granada head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burgos 1 · draws 1 · Granada 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Granada | 0-1 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2025-09-22 | Burgos | 1-1 | Granada | Segunda División |
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