Burgos vs Sabadell preview
In the upcoming match between Burgos and Sabadell, the 1X2 probabilities show Burgos at 38%, a draw at 32%, and Sabadell at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model.
Burgos has an expected goals figure of 1.03, while Sabadell sits at 0.80. There is a 28% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance for both teams to score. These low expected goals and recent form, with Burgos having two losses in their last five matches, could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Burgos vs Sabadell: model vs market
| Source | Burgos | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 35% | 26% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Published | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | +4% | -6% |
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Burgos vs Sabadell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Burgos, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 2.57 | 2.55 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.00 | -0.06 |
| Sabadell | 3.06 | 2.86 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burgos and Sabadell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.83
- Attack rating (Burgos / Sabadell)
- 0.90 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Burgos / Sabadell)
- 0.74 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burgos vs Sabadell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burgos goals. Columns: Sabadell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burgos vs Sabadell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burgos vs Sabadell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Sabadell | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.72 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burgos or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Sabadell) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win by 2+ | 16% | 6.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burgos and Sabadell recent form
Burgos
3W 1D 2L
Sabadell
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burgos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabadell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burgos at home only, Sabadell away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Eibar vs Mallorca 2026-10-17
- Sporting Gijon v Albacete — match page 2026-10-17
- Las Palmas v Castellón — match page 2026-10-17
- AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Granada vs Cadiz — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Girona v FC Andorra — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Valladolid vs Eldense 2026-10-18
- Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Burgos, previous: Burgos – Granada, 2026-10-12
- Sabadell, previous: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: odds and pick
- Sabadell, next: Utebo vs Sabadell prediction