Updated

Copa del Rey · Round of 128Postponed

Utebo vs Sabadell

· Campo Santa Ana, Utebo

Alin prediction Sabadell to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UteboDrawSabadell
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.65.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sabadell is the favourite, not a value bet.

Utebo vs Sabadell: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUteboDrawSabadell
Model11%22%67%
Market15%24%60%
Published14%24%62%
Edge-1%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Utebo vs Sabadell odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sabadell, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.58Now 1.62 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Utebo5.505.56+0.06
Draw3.823.60-0.22
Sabadell1.581.62+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Utebo and Sabadell expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.65Utebo
1.93Sabadell
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Utebo / Sabadell)
0.71 / 0.71
Defence rating (Utebo / Sabadell)
1.31 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Utebo vs Sabadell score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 13.6% 14.1% 9.0% 6.8% 1 4.0% 10.5% 9.2% 5.9% 4.4% 2 1.6% 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 3 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Utebo goals. Columns: Sabadell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Utebo vs Sabadell goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Utebo vs Sabadell

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Utebo14%7.02
Draw24%4.20
Sabadell62%1.61
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.10
Under 2.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.38
No58%1.72
Double chance1X (Utebo or draw)38%2.63
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Sabadell)86%1.17
Handicap -1Sabadell win by 2+42%2.40
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Utebo and Sabadell recent form

Utebo 0W 0D 2L
Sabadell 1W 3D 2L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Before and after this match