Eldense vs Sabadell preview
Eldense faces Sabadell with a 39% probability of winning compared to Sabadell's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time according to our model. Eldense's expected goals are 1.12, while Sabadell's are slightly lower at 0.96.
Both teams to score stands at 43%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form shows Eldense winning three of their last five matches, while Sabadell has only one win in their last five. This disparity in form could influence the match outcome, potentially leading to a different scoreline than predicted.
Eldense vs Sabadell: model vs market
| Source | Eldense | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Published | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eldense vs Sabadell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eldense, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 2.47 | 2.38 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.02 | -0.25 |
| Sabadell | 3.01 | 3.08 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eldense and Sabadell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.83
- Attack rating (Eldense / Sabadell)
- 0.80 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Eldense / Sabadell)
- 1.04 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eldense vs Sabadell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eldense goals. Columns: Sabadell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eldense vs Sabadell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eldense vs Sabadell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eldense | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Sabadell | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.68 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eldense or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Sabadell) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eldense win by 2+ | 12% | 8.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Eldense and Sabadell recent form
Eldense
3W 0D 3L
Sabadell
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eldense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Sabadell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eldense at home only, Sabadell away only.
Eldense vs Sabadell head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eldense 3 · draws 1 · Sabadell 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Eldense | 2-1 | Sabadell | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Sabadell | 0-0 | Eldense | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| 2023-02-19 | Eldense | 1-0 | Sabadell | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| 2022-10-09 | Sabadell | 1-3 | Eldense | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
- Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Eldense, previous: Las Palmas – Eldense, 2026-11-09
- Sabadell, previous: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II: odds and pick
- Sabadell, next: Utebo vs Sabadell prediction