Las Palmas vs Eldense preview
In the fixture between Las Palmas and Eldense, the 1X2 probabilities show Las Palmas at 43%, while Eldense sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Las Palmas has an expected goals figure of 1.51, compared to Eldense's 1.22, suggesting a competitive match.
However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Las Palmas has recorded W-W-L-L-D-L, while Eldense is on a better run with L-W-L-W-W-W. This difference in form might lead to unexpected results, particularly with both teams to score at 56% and Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Las Palmas vs Eldense: model vs market
| Source | Las Palmas | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.26.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Las Palmas vs Eldense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Las Palmas, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 2.21 | 2.14 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Eldense | 3.37 | 3.23 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Palmas and Eldense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Las Palmas / Eldense)
- 1.14 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Las Palmas / Eldense)
- 1.20 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Palmas vs Eldense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Palmas goals. Columns: Eldense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Palmas vs Eldense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Palmas vs Eldense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Eldense | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Palmas or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Eldense) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Palmas win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Las Palmas and Eldense recent form
Las Palmas
3W 1D 2L
Eldense
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Palmas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Palmas at home only, Eldense away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Sporting Gijon v Real Valladolid — match page 2026-11-08
- Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Las Palmas, previous: Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas: odds and pick
- Eldense, previous: Eldense vs Granada: odds and pick