Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II preview
In the fixture between Burgos and Celta de Vigo II, the 1X2 probabilities show Burgos at 69%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). Burgos has an expected goals figure of 2.60, while Celta de Vigo II stands at 1.10. This suggests a strong performance from Burgos, especially given their recent form of W-W-W-L-L-W.
However, Celta de Vigo II could disrupt this prediction. Their recent form includes a draw and a win, which may indicate potential improvement. Additionally, the model suggests a 71% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, meaning if Celta de Vigo II finds the net, it could change the dynamics of the match.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II: model vs market
| Source | Burgos | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Burgos, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 1.70 | 1.62 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.90 | +0.15 |
| Celta de Vigo II | 4.75 | 5.05 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Burgos / Celta de Vigo II)
- 1.20 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Burgos / Celta de Vigo II)
- 0.87 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burgos goals. Columns: Celta de Vigo II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 18% | 5.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burgos or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta de Vigo II) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burgos and Celta de Vigo II recent form
Burgos
3W 1D 2L
Celta de Vigo II
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burgos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta de Vigo II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burgos at home only, Celta de Vigo II away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Castellón vs Eibar — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Burgos, previous: Burgos – Castellón, 2026-11-01
- Celta de Vigo II, previous: Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba prediction