Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II preview
In the fixture between Albacete and Celta de Vigo II, the 1X2 probabilities show Albacete at 47%, making them the favorites, while Celta de Vigo II sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each have a 69% probability according to our model.
Albacete's recent form includes three wins and three losses, while Celta de Vigo II has one win, two draws, and three losses. The expected goals are 1.99 for Albacete and 1.57 for Celta de Vigo II. A draw at 23% could disrupt the prediction if both teams perform better than expected.
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II: model vs market
| Source | Albacete | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Albacete, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete | 1.65 | 1.61 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.12 | +0.22 |
| Celta de Vigo II | 4.60 | 4.89 | +0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Albacete / Celta de Vigo II)
- 1.06 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Albacete / Celta de Vigo II)
- 1.11 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Albacete goals. Columns: Celta de Vigo II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Albacete or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta de Vigo II) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Albacete win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II recent form
Albacete
4W 0D 2L
Celta de Vigo II
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Albacete at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Celta de Vigo II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Albacete at home only, Celta de Vigo II away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
- Eldense v Sabadell — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Albacete, previous: Calvo Sotelo – Albacete, 2026-11-12
- Celta de Vigo II, previous: Burgos v Celta de Vigo II analysis