Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete Prediction & Betting Tips 04/11/2026

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Calvo Sotelo and Albacete, the 1X2 probabilities show Albacete at 53%, while Calvo Sotelo sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Albacete's recent form is concerning, with 6 consecutive losses, which could impact their performance.

The model suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Calvo Sotelo has an expected goals figure of 1.44, while Albacete's is slightly lower at 1.34. If Albacete continues their poor form, the expected goals may not translate into a win, potentially altering the predicted outcome.

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Calvo Sotelo	Draw	Albacete
Model	33%	28%	40%
Market	17%	23%	60%
Published	21%	24%	55%
Edge	+4%	+1%	-5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Albacete, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.55Now 1.55 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Calvo Sotelo	5.17	5.40	+0.23
Draw	4.20	4.10	-0.10
Albacete	1.55	1.55	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Calvo Sotelo and Albacete expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Calvo Sotelo

1.48Albacete

Total expected goals: 2.80
Attack rating (Calvo Sotelo / Albacete): 1.00 / 0.71
Defence rating (Calvo Sotelo / Albacete): 1.00 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 7.8% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7% 1 6.8% 13.1% 8.8% 4.3% 2.2% 2 5.3% 7.9% 5.8% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.3% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 4+ 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Calvo Sotelo goals. Columns: Albacete goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Calvo Sotelo	21%	4.74
	Draw	24%	4.18
	Albacete	55%	1.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.88
	Under 2.5	47%	2.14
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.37
Double chance	1X (Calvo Sotelo or draw)	45%	2.22
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Albacete)	79%	1.27
Handicap -1	Albacete win by 2+	20%	5.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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