Granada vs Las Palmas preview
In the fixture between Granada and Las Palmas, Granada has a 63% probability to win compared to Las Palmas at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Granada's expected goals of 2.30 and Las Palmas' 1.11.
Granada is in strong recent form, winning their last 6 matches, while Las Palmas has mixed results with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6. The model suggests a 66% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. However, Las Palmas has historically performed well against Granada, winning 2 of their last 4 encounters, which could impact the outcome.
Granada vs Las Palmas: model vs market
| Source | Granada | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Granada vs Las Palmas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Granada, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 1.69 | 1.80 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.58 | -0.18 |
| Las Palmas | 4.67 | 4.32 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Granada and Las Palmas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Granada / Las Palmas)
- 1.31 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Granada / Las Palmas)
- 0.83 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Granada vs Las Palmas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Granada goals. Columns: Las Palmas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Granada vs Las Palmas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Granada vs Las Palmas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Granada | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Las Palmas | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Granada or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Palmas) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Granada win by 2+ | 36% | 2.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Granada and Las Palmas recent form
Granada
6W 0D 0L
Las Palmas
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Granada at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Las Palmas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Granada at home only, Las Palmas away only.
Granada vs Las Palmas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Granada 2 · draws 5 · Las Palmas 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Las Palmas | 2-0 | Granada | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-10 | Granada | 0-0 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2024-07-25 | Las Palmas | 1-1 | Granada | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-03 | Granada | 1-1 | Las Palmas | La Liga |
| 2023-09-24 | Las Palmas | 1-0 | Granada | La Liga |
| 2023-04-15 | Granada | 2-1 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2022-09-26 | Las Palmas | 2-0 | Granada | Segunda División |
| 2019-03-24 | Granada | 1-1 | Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| 2018-11-16 | Las Palmas | 2-2 | Granada | Segunda División |
| 2017-02-06 | Granada | 1-0 | Las Palmas | La Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Real Valladolid vs Castellón — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
- Eldense v Sabadell — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Granada, previous: Granada – Tenerife, 2026-11-07
- Las Palmas, previous: Las Palmas – Eldense, 2026-11-09