Real Valladolid vs Castellón preview
In the fixture between Real Valladolid and Castellón, the 1X2 probabilities show Castellón at 57%, compared to Real Valladolid's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Castellón's expected goals stand at 1.88, while Real Valladolid's is only 1.01.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 55%, indicating a strong potential for an open match. However, the recent form shows Real Valladolid with a mixed record of W-W-L-L-W-D, which could impact their performance. Castellón, on the other hand, has a stronger recent form of D-W-W-W-L-D, suggesting they may have the upper hand in this matchup.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón: model vs market
| Source | Real Valladolid | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Castellón below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Real Valladolid vs Castellón odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Castellón, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | 2.76 | 2.91 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.55 | +0.03 |
| Castellón | 2.33 | 2.23 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Valladolid and Castellón expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Real Valladolid / Castellón)
- 1.32 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Real Valladolid / Castellón)
- 1.08 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Valladolid goals. Columns: Castellón goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Valladolid vs Castellón
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Castellón | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Valladolid or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Castellón) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win by 2+ | 31% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Valladolid and Castellón recent form
Real Valladolid
4W 0D 2L
Castellón
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Valladolid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Valladolid at home only, Castellón away only.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Real Valladolid 1 · draws 0 · Castellón 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Real Valladolid | 0-4 | Castellón | Segunda División |
| 2025-08-22 | Castellón | 0-1 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Leganes vs Burgos 2026-11-13
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Real Valladolid, previous: Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid: odds and pick
- Castellón, previous: Castellón vs Eibar prediction