Leganes vs Burgos preview
In the match between Leganes and Burgos, the 1X2 probabilities show Leganes at 34%, a draw at 29%, and Burgos at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Leganes recording 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Burgos has 4 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals are 1.01 for Leganes and 1.80 for Burgos, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. The model also suggests a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, which suggests uncertainty in the outcome.
Leganes vs Burgos: model vs market
| Source | Leganes | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Published | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below our published probability: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +17.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leganes vs Burgos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Burgos, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 2.20 | 2.40 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.11 | -0.15 |
| Burgos | 3.57 | 3.00 | -0.57 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leganes and Burgos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Leganes / Burgos)
- 0.78 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Leganes / Burgos)
- 1.25 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leganes vs Burgos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leganes goals. Columns: Burgos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leganes vs Burgos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leganes vs Burgos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Burgos | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leganes or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Burgos) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leganes and Burgos recent form
Leganes
1W 1D 4L
Burgos
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leganes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leganes at home only, Burgos away only.
Leganes vs Burgos head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Leganes 2 · draws 2 · Burgos 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Burgos | 2-1 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-01 | Leganes | 1-2 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2024-01-22 | Leganes | 2-0 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2023-10-04 | Burgos | 1-0 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2023-05-12 | Burgos | 0-3 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2022-09-18 | Leganes | 0-0 | Burgos | Segunda División |
| 2022-01-23 | Burgos | 4-0 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2021-08-23 | Leganes | 0-0 | Burgos | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Leganes, previous: Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction
- Burgos, previous: Burgos v Celta de Vigo II analysis