Eibar vs Cadiz preview
Eibar faces Cadiz with a 56% probability of winning, while Cadiz stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Eibar has an expected goals figure of 1.84, compared to Cadiz's 1.21.
Recent form shows Eibar with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Cadiz has two wins and three losses. The model suggests a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. However, if Eibar's form dips or Cadiz improves, the outcome could shift.
Eibar vs Cadiz: model vs market
| Source | Eibar | Draw | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.09.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eibar vs Cadiz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eibar, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 1.61 | 1.61 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.88 | -0.18 |
| Cadiz | 5.03 | 5.12 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eibar and Cadiz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Eibar / Cadiz)
- 1.26 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Eibar / Cadiz)
- 0.87 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eibar vs Cadiz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eibar goals. Columns: Cadiz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eibar vs Cadiz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eibar vs Cadiz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Cadiz | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eibar or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Cadiz) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Eibar and Cadiz recent form
Eibar
2W 2D 2L
Cadiz
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eibar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cadiz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eibar at home only, Cadiz away only.
Eibar vs Cadiz head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Eibar 2 · draws 1 · Cadiz 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Eibar | 3-1 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2025-09-13 | Cadiz | 1-0 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2025-03-31 | Cadiz | 0-0 | Eibar | Segunda División |
| 2024-10-23 | Eibar | 1-0 | Cadiz | Segunda División |
| 2021-03-06 | Cadiz | 1-0 | Eibar | La Liga |
| 2020-10-30 | Eibar | 0-2 | Cadiz | La Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eldense v Sabadell — match page 2026-11-15
- Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II 2026-11-16
Before and after this match
- Eibar, previous: Pamplona vs Eibar: odds and pick
- Cadiz, previous: Cadiz v Real Oviedo analysis