Pamplona vs Eibar: model vs market
| Source | Pamplona | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Published | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.03.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Pamplona vs Eibar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eibar, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pamplona | 16.50 | 12.50 | -4.00 |
| Draw | 6.85 | 5.90 | -0.95 |
| Eibar | 1.14 | 1.21 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pamplona and Eibar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Pamplona / Eibar)
- 1.00 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Pamplona / Eibar)
- 1.00 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pamplona vs Eibar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pamplona goals. Columns: Eibar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pamplona vs Eibar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pamplona vs Eibar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pamplona | 10% | 9.81 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Eibar | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pamplona or draw) | 29% | 3.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Eibar) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Pamplona and Eibar recent form
Eibar
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
- Anaitasuna v Alaves — match page 2026-11-03
- Portugalete vs Real Unión 2026-11-04
- Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés 2026-11-04
- Utebo vs Sabadell — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Reddis v Barakaldo — match page 2026-11-04
- Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Badajoz v Tenerife — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Eibar, previous: Eibar v Almeria analysis
- Eibar, next: Castellón vs Eibar prediction