Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon preview
In the Segunda División fixture between Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Sociedad II at 36% and Sporting Gijon at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score has a 55% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%. Recent form indicates Real Sociedad II has struggled, recording 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Sporting Gijon has won 4 of their last 6 games. This form could challenge the predicted outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the statistics.
Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad II | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad II, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II | 2.41 | 2.44 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.53 | 3.16 | -0.37 |
| Sporting Gijon | 2.91 | 2.91 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad II / Sporting Gijon)
- 0.84 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad II / Sporting Gijon)
- 1.19 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad II goals. Columns: Sporting Gijon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad II | 36% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Sporting Gijon | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad II or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Gijon) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad II win by 2+ | 13% | 7.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Sociedad II and Sporting Gijon recent form
Real Sociedad II
1W 1D 4L
Sporting Gijon
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Sociedad II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Sporting Gijon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad II at home only, Sporting Gijon away only.
Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Real Sociedad II 3 · draws 0 · Sporting Gijon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Sporting Gijon | 1-0 | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División |
| 2025-12-06 | Real Sociedad II | 0-1 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2022-03-07 | Real Sociedad II | 2-1 | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| 2021-11-12 | Sporting Gijon | 0-1 | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División |
| 2021-07-28 | Sporting Gijon | 0-2 | Real Sociedad II | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Leganes vs Burgos 2026-11-13
- Real Valladolid vs Castellón — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Almeria v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-14
- Mallorca vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Real Oviedo vs Girona 2026-11-14
- Tenerife v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-15
- Granada vs Las Palmas — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Eibar v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Real Sociedad II, previous: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II: odds and pick
- Sporting Gijon, previous: Sporting Gijon vs Real Valladolid: odds and pick