Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II preview
In the fixture between Sabadell and Real Sociedad II, the 1X2 probabilities show Sabadell at 57% to win, while Real Sociedad II sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with an 11% probability. Sabadell has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Real Sociedad II's 0.94, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the recent form for both teams may affect the outcome. Sabadell has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Real Sociedad II has lost five in a row. With a 50% chance for both teams to score and 47% for Over 2.5 goals, the match could see unexpected results if either team improves their performance.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II: model vs market
| Source | Sabadell | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.94.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sabadell, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell | 1.59 | 1.59 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.87 | +0.00 |
| Real Sociedad II | 5.22 | 5.22 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Sabadell / Real Sociedad II)
- 0.82 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Sabadell / Real Sociedad II)
- 0.85 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sabadell goals. Columns: Real Sociedad II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Real Sociedad II | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sabadell or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad II) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sabadell and Real Sociedad II recent form
Sabadell
1W 3D 2L
Real Sociedad II
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sabadell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Real Sociedad II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sabadell at home only, Real Sociedad II away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC — match page 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
- Sporting Gijon v Real Valladolid — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sabadell, previous: Utebo vs Sabadell prediction
- Real Sociedad II, previous: Real Sociedad II v Girona analysis