Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC preview
In the match between Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Cordoba at 61%, while AD Ceuta FC is at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Cordoba has an expected goals figure of 2.14 compared to AD Ceuta FC's 1.34, indicating a stronger attacking potential.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Cordoba's last six games show a mixed record of D-L-W-W-L-W, while AD Ceuta FC has a slightly better recent form with W-L-L-L-D-W. Both teams to score has a probability of 66%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 68%, suggesting that while Cordoba is favored, surprises are possible.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC: model vs market
| Source | Cordoba | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cordoba, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba | 1.51 | 1.49 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.79 | 4.60 | -0.19 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 5.83 | 5.45 | -0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Cordoba / AD Ceuta FC)
- 1.09 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Cordoba / AD Ceuta FC)
- 1.26 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cordoba goals. Columns: AD Ceuta FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cordoba | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cordoba or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or AD Ceuta FC) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cordoba win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC recent form
Cordoba
3W 1D 2L
AD Ceuta FC
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cordoba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cordoba at home only, AD Ceuta FC away only.
Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cordoba 1 · draws 0 · AD Ceuta FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | AD Ceuta FC | 3-2 | Cordoba | Segunda División |
| 2025-11-02 | Cordoba | 2-0 | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Castellón vs Eibar — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Burgos v Celta de Vigo II — match page 2026-11-07
- Cadiz vs Real Oviedo 2026-11-07
- Leganes vs Albacete — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Granada vs Tenerife — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Andorra vs Mallorca 2026-11-08
- Girona vs Almeria 2026-11-08
- Las Palmas v Eldense — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Cordoba, previous: Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba prediction
- AD Ceuta FC, previous: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon prediction